Improved statistical methods for estimating infestation rates in quarantine research when hosts are naturally infested.

Trading partners often require phytosanitary or quarantine treatments for fresh horticultural produce to ensure no economically important pest species are moved with the imported product. When developing such treatments, it is essential that the level of treatment efficacy can be determined. This is often based on the mortality of the total number of target pests exposed to treatment, but in naturally infested products this number is not always known. In such cases, the infestation rate and subsequently an estimate of the number of pests are obtained directly from a set of untreated control samples of the host product. The International Plant Protection Convention (IPPC) Secretariat has provided 2 formulas for these situations that place an interval around the point estimate obtained from the control samples to obtain an estimate of the infestation rate. However, these formulas do not allow a confidence level to be assigned to the estimate, and there are concerns with the assumptions regarding the distribution and the measure of variability used in the formulas. In this article, we propose 2 alternative formulas. We propose that the lower one-sided confidence limit should be applied to all infestation datasets that are approximately normally distributed. As infestation data are sometimes skewed, it is proposed the lower one-sided modified Cox confidence limit is applied to data approximately log-normal distributed. These well-recognized formulas are compared to the formulas recommended by the IPPC and applied to 3 datasets involving natural infestation.

The Fallacy of Year-Round Breeding in Polyphagous Tropical Fruit Flies (Diptera: Tephritidae): Evidence for a Seasonal Reproductive Arrestment in Bactrocera Species.

The genus Bactrocera (Diptera: Tephritidae) is endemic to the monsoonal rainforests of South-east Asia and the western Pacific where the larvae breed in ripe, fleshy fruits. While most Bactrocera remain rainforest restricted, species such as Bactrocera dorsalis, Bactrocera zonata and Bactrocera tryoni are internationally significant pests of horticulture, being both highly invasive and highly polyphagous. Almost universally in the literature it is assumed that Bactrocera breed continuously if temperature and hosts are not limiting. However, despite that, these flies show distinct seasonality. If discussed, seasonality is generally attributed to the fruiting of a particular breeding host (almost invariably mango or guava), but the question appears not to have been asked why flies do not breed at other times of the year despite other hosts being available. Focusing initially on B. tryoni, for which more literature is available, we demonstrate that the seasonality exhibited by that species is closely correlated with the seasons of its endemic rainforest environment as recognised by traditional Aboriginal owners. Evidence suggests the presence of a seasonal reproductive arrest which helps the fly survive the first two-thirds of the dry season, when ripe fruits are scarce, followed by a rapid increase in breeding at the end of the dry season as humidity and the availability of ripe fruit increases. This seasonal phenology continues to be expressed in human-modified landscapes and, while suppressed, it also partially expresses in long-term cultures. We subsequently demonstrate that B. dorsalis, across both its endemic and invasive ranges, shows a very similar seasonality although reversed in the northern hemisphere. While high variability in the timing of B. dorsalis population peaks is exhibited across sites, a four-month period when flies are rare in traps (Dec-Mar) is highly consistent, as is the fact that nearly all sites only have one, generally very sharp, population peak per year. While literature to support or deny a reproductive arrest in B. dorsalis is not available, available data is clear that continuous breeding does not occur in this species and that there are seasonal differences in reproductive investment. Throughout the paper we reinforce the point that our argument for a complex reproductive physiology in Bactrocera is based on inductive reasoning and requires specific, hypothesis-testing experiments to confirm or deny, but we do believe there is ample evidence to prioritise such research. If it is found that species in the genus undergo a true reproductive diapause then there are very significant implications for within-field management, market access, and biosecurity risk planning which are discussed. Arguably the most important of these is that insects in diapause have greater stress resistance and cold tolerance, which could explain how tropical Bactrocera species have managed to successfully invade cool temperate regions.

Paleoindian settlement of the high-altitude Peruvian Andes.

Study of human adaptation to extreme environments is important for understanding our cultural and genetic capacity for survival. The Pucuncho Basin in the southern Peruvian Andes contains the highest-altitude Pleistocene archaeological sites yet identified in the world, about 900 meters above confidently dated contemporary sites. The Pucuncho workshop site [4355 meters above sea level (masl)] includes two fishtail projectile points, which date to about 12.8 to 11.5 thousand years ago (ka). Cuncaicha rock shelter (4480 masl) has a robust, well-preserved, and well-dated occupation sequence spanning the past 12.4 thousand years (ky), with 21 dates older than 11.5 ka. Our results demonstrate that despite cold temperatures and low-oxygen conditions, hunter-gatherers colonized extreme high-altitude Andean environments in the Terminal Pleistocene, within about 2 ky of the initial entry of humans to South America.